BofA’s Hartnett Says Magnificent 7 Stock Bubble Is Still Growing

Core Viewpoint - The bubble in US Big Tech stocks has further potential for growth, and investors should prepare for additional gains according to Bank of America strategists [1] Group 1: Historical Context and Performance - A study of 10 equity bubbles since the early 20th century revealed that these periods of extreme overvaluation typically yield average trough-to-peak gains of 244% [2] - The "Magnificent Seven" stocks have already risen 223% from their March 2023 low, indicating that they have "more to go" [2] - Historical stock bubbles often concluded with trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 58, while the current benchmark is 29% above its 200-day moving average [3] Group 2: Current Valuations and Market Sentiment - The Magnificent Seven, which includes Tesla, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia, currently has a trailing P/E ratio of 39 and is only 20% above its 200-day moving average [4] - Investor appetite for these tech megacaps has driven their stocks to all-time highs this year, showing resilience against market shocks [5] - The S&P 500 Info Tech Index has surged 56% from its low in April, with investors consistently buying into dips [6] Group 3: Economic Factors and Future Outlook - A favorable macroeconomic environment, ongoing enthusiasm for AI, and expectations of further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts are supporting the tech sector [6] - The BofA fund manager survey indicated that "Long Magnificent Seven" is viewed as the most crowded trade by 42% of respondents for the second consecutive month [6] - Bubbles are typically short-lived and concentrated, as evidenced by the tech sector's 61% rise in six months during the 2000 internet stock rally [7] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to "barbell" their exposure to the Big Tech bubble by also holding "distressed value" stocks, which can benefit from the economic growth spurred by hyper-valuation [10] - Potential examples of distressed value plays include markets in Brazil, the UK, and global energy stocks [10]