阿根廷，突然最大规模救市

Core Insights - The Argentine central bank conducted its largest single-day dollar sale in nearly six years, amounting to $678 million, to support the peso amid political instability and increased demand for dollars from institutional investors [1] - The total dollar sales over the past three trading days reached $1.1 billion, indicating a significant intervention to manage liquidity as the peso hovers at historical lows [1] - Economic Minister Luis Caputo stated that the central bank will sell every dollar in reserves at the upper limit of the floating exchange rate [1] Group 1 - The peso fell to a historical low of 1,520 per dollar in the parallel exchange market, depreciating over 6% this week [3] - Since the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in mid-April, the central bank had not intervened in the market until now [4] - Analysts estimate that if the current pace of dollar sales continues, reserves could decrease by approximately $10 billion before the elections, which is about 70% of the funds already disbursed by the IMF [4] Group 2 - The central bank's net international reserves are reported at $39.26 billion, but usable reserves for intervention are estimated to be only around $6 billion [4] - Continuous dollar sales may accelerate the depletion of reserves, jeopardizing short-term debt repayments, and could lead to increased issuance of local currency bonds to cover funding gaps [5] - The "country risk" indicator has risen to its highest level since August 2024, hovering around 1,500 basis points, with off-market bonds averaging a decline of 1.4% this week [6] Group 3 - The stability of the Argentine peso is deemed crucial; failure to maintain it could lead to soaring prices and undermine President Milei's support for necessary reforms [8] - President Milei vowed to defend the peso at all costs, echoing statements from his chief economic advisor [8] - Analysts warn that maintaining the current exchange rate could risk returning the country to rampant inflation, which contradicts Milei's promise to end it [10]