Taseko Mines Limited (TGB): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Taseko Mines Limited (TGB) is viewed positively due to its strong asset base and growth potential, particularly from the Florence in-situ copper project, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's EBITDA and production capacity [1][5]. Company Overview - Taseko Mines is a Canadian-based, US-listed junior copper miner with one producing asset (Gibraltar mine), one near-term project (Florence), and three large-scale greenfield developments [2]. - The Gibraltar mine has a 32-year mine life and produced 106 million pounds of copper in 2024 at a cash cost of $2.30 per pound, with a projected increase to 120 million pounds in 2025 [2]. Florence Project - The Florence project, with buildout costs of $235 million, is expected to produce 85 million pounds annually at a cash cost of $1.11 per pound, placing it in the first quartile of the global cost curve [3]. - The project is anticipated to begin ramping up in Q4 2025 and contribute approximately $325 million in EBITDA, in addition to Gibraltar's $250 million [3]. Long-term Growth Potential - Taseko has three greenfield projects in British Columbia: New Prosperity, Yellowhead, and Aley, with Yellowhead prioritized for development due to its superior economics [4]. - By 2027, TGB's projected copper production of 88,000 tons is valued at $12,841 per ton, significantly lower than peers, suggesting a potential for a 50%+ upside in stock valuation if copper prices rise [4].