Crude Prices Retreat as the Dollar Strengthens and Global Oil Supplies Increase

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have retreated due to a strengthening dollar and bearish outlook for global oil supplies, particularly with Iraq nearing a deal to resume oil exports from its Kurdistan region to Turkey [2][3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million barrels per day (bpd), indicating concerns about a potential global oil glut [4] - Ukraine's intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are contributing to a tightening of global oil supplies, which may support crude prices despite the bearish outlook [5][6] Price Movements - October WTI crude oil closed down by $0.89 (-1.40%) and October RBOB gasoline closed down by $0.0407 (-2.02%) [1] Supply Dynamics - Iraq's preliminary approval to resume pipeline oil exports could add at least 230,000 bpd to global markets, contributing to the bearish sentiment for crude prices [3] - Ukraine's attacks have halted around 300,000 bpd of refining capacity and reduced Russia's total refined-product flows to 1.94 million bpd, the lowest in over 3.25 years [5] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing tensions in Ukraine may lead to additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, further reducing global oil supplies [6]