从“被动治”到“主动防”—全球变暖，中国农业如何应“烤”

Core Viewpoint - Climate change is significantly reshaping agricultural production in China, with a notable northward shift in major crop planting areas due to rising temperatures and changing weather patterns [3][4][12]. Climate Change Impact on Agriculture - Global warming has led to a northward migration of planting zones, with specific examples including the northward shift of the optimal planting boundary for Gan Nan navel oranges and cotton in Xinjiang [3]. - The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that global average temperatures have risen by 1.1°C since pre-industrial times, affecting crop yields by -10% to 25% [2][4]. Crop Yield and Quality Concerns - High temperatures above 38°C significantly inhibit the growth of key crops like rice, corn, and wheat, leading to reduced yields and lower grain quality [4]. - Research indicates that a 1°C increase in global average temperature could result in yield reductions of 6.0% for wheat, 3.2% for rice, 7.4% for corn, and 3.1% for soybeans [4]. Extreme Weather Events - The frequency of extreme weather events, such as droughts and heavy rainfall, is increasing, severely impacting agricultural production [5][6]. - In Gansu province, a significant reduction in rainfall has led to widespread drought affecting 1.88 million acres of crops [5]. Pest and Disease Management Challenges - Climate change is altering the geographical distribution of pests and diseases, with new threats emerging in previously unaffected areas [6]. - The northward expansion of wheat rust disease and other pests has resulted in significant economic losses, estimated at over 12 billion yuan annually [6]. Agricultural Adaptation Strategies - The Chinese agricultural sector is undergoing a transformation to enhance resilience against climate change through various strategies, including the development of drought-resistant crop varieties and innovative planting techniques [12][14]. - The introduction of the "Zhongmai 36" drought-resistant wheat variety is expected to increase yields significantly while conserving water [7][8]. Policy and Research Initiatives - The 2023 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the need for a new round of agricultural climate resource surveys and zoning to adapt to changing conditions [12]. - Experts advocate for a comprehensive national strategy to address climate change impacts on agriculture, focusing on enhancing scientific understanding and developing actionable plans [13][14].