Xin Lang Ji Jin·2025-09-21 11:38Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index showing a slight increase of 0.37%. Key tech stocks like Alibaba and Meituan are performing actively, while others like Xiaomi and Kuaishou are seeing slight declines [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) opened with three consecutive gains, reaching a historical high before experiencing a pullback, indicating a shift to a consolidation phase [3]. - The Hong Kong Internet ETF has outperformed the Hang Seng Tech Index by over 15 percentage points in terms of cumulative gains and maximum gains since the beginning of the year [7]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Historical data shows that the Hang Seng Index has experienced five complete bull and bear cycles since 2003, with an average bull market duration of 32 months and an average cumulative increase of 111%. The current cycle, which started in January 2024, has seen a 55% increase so far, suggesting further upward potential [5]. - The valuation of Hong Kong tech stocks remains attractive compared to US and A-share tech stocks, with the latest PE ratio of the underlying index of the Hong Kong Internet ETF at 25.55 times, lower than the historical average of 32.46% for the Hang Seng Tech Index [5]. - Major internet companies are making significant progress in AI, which is becoming a key driver for sustained growth. For instance, Alibaba's PPU chip is competitive with Nvidia's H20 chip, and S&P Global has partnered with Alibaba Cloud to introduce AI-ready data into China [5]. Group 3: Analyst Sentiment - International investment banks are increasingly optimistic about major internet companies, with Goldman Sachs raising Alibaba's target price based on expected growth in Alibaba Cloud, projecting a growth rate of 30% to 32% for the fiscal year 2026 [6]. - Citigroup anticipates that Tencent will leverage its AI capabilities to enhance core business monetization, which could accelerate revenue growth from cloud and business services [6]. - The supply of chips and model iterations are critical for accelerating cloud computing, serving as catalysts for the revaluation of the internet sector under the AI narrative [6].