六大机构最新研判！四季度市场风格或迎再平衡

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 1% for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rose by 1.14% and 2.34% respectively [1] - The current market volatility is seen as emotional, providing opportunities for structural allocation [1] Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market style may undergo a rebalancing process in the fourth quarter, with a trading window opening for cyclical stocks and a shift within technology stocks from high to low [1][4] - Key sectors to focus on include cyclical industries such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, catering, and tourism, as well as technology sectors related to storage and AI supply chain components [1][4] Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has adjusted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation rules to better meet the differentiated funding needs of various institutions [3] - In August, there was a net inflow of $3.2 billion in cross-border funds, with foreign capital net buying domestic stocks and bonds [3] Institutional Perspectives - CITIC Securities emphasizes a framework for industry selection focusing on "resources + new productivity + going abroad," with a focus on globalizing leading Chinese manufacturers [4] - Dongwu Securities notes that cyclical stocks are entering a trading window, while technology stocks are shifting from a focus on upstream hardware to a broader range of AI-related sectors [4] - Zhongtai Securities highlights three main lines for structural allocation: technology innovation, domestic demand, and sectors benefiting from external environment improvements [5] Global Economic Factors - Morgan Asset Management remains optimistic about the A-share market, noting that structural characteristics persist, with new economy sectors expected to perform well [6] - In light of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, there is an expectation of increased overseas capital inflow, benefiting sectors directly impacted by liquidity easing [6][7]