市场对央行重启国债买卖操作预期升温

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising above 1.8% again, and expectations for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to resume government bond trading operations are increasing [1][2] - From August to December 2024, the PBOC conducted net purchases of government bonds totaling 1 trillion yuan, providing crucial support for liquidity adjustment and stable operation of the bond market [1] - The PBOC's decision to temporarily pause government bond purchases was made in response to a supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, with the 10-year yield previously dropping below 1.6% [1] Group 2 - The PBOC's operations in government bond trading are significant for financial market stability and macroeconomic regulation, serving both as a quantitative monetary policy tool and a price-based tool to guide bond yields [2] - A recent meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC emphasized the importance of coordinating fiscal and monetary policies, discussing topics such as government bond issuance management and the PBOC's bond trading operations [2] - The expectation for the PBOC to resume government bond trading is increasing, with analysts suggesting that clearer triggers are needed for interest rates to reopen a downward channel [3] Group 3 - The current market environment is considered favorable for the PBOC to resume government bond trading operations, as the bond market has shifted from rapid declines in rates to a more stable range [3] - Analysts indicate that the PBOC may take measures to protect against the rapid rise in long-term bond yields, which could include increasing liquidity, resuming bond trading, or guiding market interest rates downward [3]