A股短期或延续震荡立足景气逻辑挖掘主线机会

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.30% to close at 3820.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34% [2] - The market showed overall volatility in the first half of the week, but retreated towards the end as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2][3] Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, leading to a temporary cooling of investor sentiment and risk appetite [3][4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive for A-shares, with expectations of a stronger RMB and improved market risk appetite [3][4] Calendar Effects - Historical data indicates that A-shares typically exhibit a calendar effect around the National Day holiday, with a tendency for the market to perform poorly before the holiday and rebound afterward [5][6] - Over the past decade, indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have shown over 60% probability of rising in the week following the National Day holiday [5] Sector Performance - Certain sectors, particularly technology-related industries such as computers, communications, and electronics, have a higher probability of rising in the five trading days following the holiday [6] - Financial sectors, including banks and non-bank financials, are also expected to perform well in the weeks following the holiday [6] Investment Strategy - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a shift in investment styles, with a potential rotation from previously high-performing sectors to more defensive ones [7] - Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors driven by economic recovery and industry trends, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and consumer sectors [7]