金价走高抑制印度市场需求

Core Viewpoint - India's gold demand is expected to be weaker this festive season compared to previous years due to rising gold prices, which are suppressing jewelry purchases. The government is implementing pragmatic policies to stimulate demand [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - India is a significant consumer of gold, particularly in the jewelry market, which is deeply embedded in cultural traditions and daily life, especially during weddings and festivals [1]. - The upcoming festivals, Dussehra and Diwali, typically account for about one-third of India's annual gold sales, with expectations of maintaining high sales levels this year [1]. Group 2: Price Impact - In early September, local gold prices surged to a historical peak of 109,840 rupees per 10 grams (approximately 8,876 RMB), marking a 42% increase year-to-date and a 21% increase for 2024, indicating a clear upward trend over the past two years [1]. - The rise in gold prices is leading to a noticeable decline in consumer demand, as budgets for purchasing gold and jewelry are relatively fixed [1]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Approximately two-thirds of gold demand in India is driven by the rural market, which is currently facing challenges due to high tariffs affecting farmers' income and future prospects, leading to a significant impact on overall market conditions [2]. - There is a structural adjustment in consumer behavior, with a substantial decline in non-essential jewelry purchases and a trend towards lightweight designs and trade-ins for wedding-related gold items. Reports indicate that trade-ins accounted for 60% of jewelry consumption in the first quarter [2]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Despite a decline in physical gold consumption, there is an increase in investment sentiment among consumers, with the size of gold exchange-traded funds reaching nearly 160 billion rupees in the first quarter, reflecting a growing long-term allocation interest [2]. - The CEO of the World Gold Council's India division noted that even with a decrease in physical demand, overall gold demand in India is expected to remain higher than last year, driven by increased investment demand, particularly in gold ETFs [2]. Group 5: Market Adaptation - To boost gold market demand, Indian jewelers are adjusting their product offerings to maintain festive consumption levels. The market share of 18K gold jewelry has increased from 5%-7% to over 15%, priced 20% lower than traditional 22K gold, catering to younger consumers' preferences for lightweight designs [3]. - The long-term outlook for India's gold market remains resilient, with an expanding middle-income group and increasing disposable income, suggesting continued demand for gold and jewelry [3]. - Manufacturers and retailers are promoting more fashionable, lightweight, and lower-purity products to align with the preferences and realities of younger consumers, indicating potential for market demand growth if government stimulus measures are implemented [3].