“脱钩”逆流必败于合作大势

Core Insights - Despite the U.S. government's tariffs and push for supply chain relocation, most American companies in China continue to deepen their market presence, indicating that the trade war has not triggered a large-scale corporate retreat from China [1][2] - The report highlights that 48% of surveyed American companies advocate for the complete removal of tariffs and non-tariff barriers against Chinese goods, reflecting the significant uncertainty foreign firms face due to fluctuations in bilateral trade relations [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The resilience and comprehensive advantages of the Chinese economy create a strong attraction for global capital, supported by a large population and an expanding middle-income group that drives consumption upgrades [1][3] - China's complete industrial chain, developed infrastructure, and abundant human resources enable companies to achieve seamless integration from R&D to market at higher efficiency and lower costs [1][3] Group 2: Business Environment - Continuous reforms and opening-up measures in China have improved the business environment, with 71% of surveyed companies expecting to achieve profitability in 2024 [2] - 48% of companies perceive a significant improvement in the transparency of China's regulatory environment, with a 13 percentage point increase from the previous year [2] Group 3: U.S. Corporate Sentiment - U.S. companies are increasingly questioning the effectiveness of tariff policies, recognizing that the costs are ultimately borne by American businesses and consumers, which undermines their product competitiveness [2][3] - The automotive sector is projected to incur significant losses due to tariffs, with an estimated $2.25 billion loss in Q2 2025 and an annual loss of $7 billion [2] Group 4: Global Supply Chain - The U.S. push for "manufacturing return" policies has had limited success, as modern manufacturing relies on specialized networks and ecosystems that cannot simply be replicated by relocating production [3] - The consensus is growing that no other economy can replace China's role in the foreseeable future, as China is not only the "world's factory" but also a key market and global innovation center [3] Group 5: Economic Globalization - Attempts to alter the direction of economic globalization through protectionism are ultimately futile, as China's commitment to market openness and cooperative development continues to strengthen [4]