【环时深度】“东部哨兵”永久化？北约受多重质疑

Core Points - The recent drone incidents have escalated tensions between NATO countries and Russia, marking one of the most dangerous confrontations since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][6] - Poland's Prime Minister Tusk described the situation as the closest to open conflict since World War II, with NATO's Article 4 being triggered and the "Eastern Sentinel" military operation involving ten countries [1][3] - The drone events have raised concerns about NATO's ability to respond to non-traditional military threats and the adequacy of its defense mechanisms [6][7] Group 1: NATO's Response and Military Operations - The "Eastern Sentinel" operation was initiated on September 12, with ten NATO member countries participating, aimed at enhancing defense capabilities along NATO's eastern flank [3][5] - NATO has established eight multinational battlegroups in Eastern Europe since 2017, doubling the number of ground troops in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the "Eastern Sentinel" operation could evolve into a permanent air and naval patrol project, indicating a long-term military presence in Eastern Europe [5][6] Group 2: Financial and Operational Concerns - The long-term operation of the "Eastern Sentinel" plan is expected to be costly, involving the transfer of aircraft and troops to Eastern European NATO facilities [6][8] - The recent drone incidents have highlighted NATO's weaknesses in countering drone threats, with significant resources being expended to intercept relatively low-cost drones [6][8] - There are calls within NATO to establish a "drone wall" to address low-altitude threats, but proposals for extending NATO's air shield to Ukraine have not materialized [6][7] Group 3: Political Dynamics and Member States' Perspectives - The drone incursions are seen as a test of NATO's political cohesion and defense readiness, with various member states facing internal political and financial challenges [8][9] - The ambiguity in defining "armed attacks" in the context of drone incursions raises concerns about NATO's collective defense commitments and the potential for differing expectations among allies [7][8] - The U.S. response to the incidents has been scrutinized, with mixed signals from President Trump potentially undermining NATO's unity and credibility [9][10]