政治经济形势不稳，法国主权信用评级“一周双降”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that France's sovereign credit rating has been downgraded by two agencies in one week, reflecting severe consequences of political and economic instability [1][2] - The recent political turmoil includes the collapse of Prime Minister Borne's government due to failed confidence votes on budget deficit reduction measures, leading to the appointment of a new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, without stabilizing the political situation [1][2] - Morningstar DBRS indicates that the political environment and increasing government instability hinder the effectiveness of France's fiscal policy setting, raising execution risks for achieving fiscal targets in the coming years [1][2] Group 2 - Fitch downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from "AA-" to "A+" due to political divisions obstructing necessary reforms, which negatively impacts public finances and is expected to worsen public debt from 113.9% of GDP in 2025 to 121% by 2027 [2] - Political and fiscal turmoil has led to asset sell-offs in France, increasing borrowing costs relative to other European countries, with bond premiums nearly doubling since Macron's election call [2] - Despite exceeding growth expectations in the first half of the year, uncertainty is projected to lead to a more sluggish economy, as businesses and households hesitate on investment and consumption [2][3] Group 3 - Lecornu has not yet clarified how to negotiate with opposition lawmakers demanding tax increases and slower deficit reduction, with the primary task being to form a new government in a divided parliament [2][3] - Morningstar DBRS believes Lecornu's measures may be relatively weak, as previous proposals for significant tax increases and budget cuts were rejected by opposition votes [3] - The outlook for France's rating has been adjusted from "negative" to "stable," indicating some advantages as the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, but warns of potential further downgrades if structural fiscal imbalances and debt ratios continue to rise [3]