日本央行加息悬了？背后两大“定时炸弹”

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its interest rates but has begun to sell its risk assets, indicating a step towards exiting its large-scale stimulus program [2][5]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Actions - The BOJ decided to keep interest rates unchanged but started selling its holdings of risk assets, marking a significant move away from ultra-loose monetary policy [2][5]. - Two board members proposed raising the short-term interest rate to 0.75%, but this was not approved [2]. - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that while the consumer price index (CPI) data is in line with expectations, there are risks of long-term food price increases pushing up core inflation [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Ueda emphasized that future interest rate decisions will depend on the impact of U.S. tariff discussions on the Japanese economy and whether food inflation will subside [2][3]. - Despite a slight decline in exports and manufacturer profits, overall exports are stabilizing, and corporate profits and capital expenditures remain robust [2]. - The BOJ maintains its basic forecast scenario from July, expecting the economy to withstand the impact of tariff discussions, with core inflation gradually approaching the 2% target [3]. Group 3: Currency Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate remains strong, positioned above the daily cloud chart, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - Key support levels are identified at 147.60 and 147.10, with resistance at 148.50 and 149.00 [4]. Group 4: Market Analyst Insights - StoneX senior market analyst Matt Simpson highlighted that the BOJ's decision to reduce its ETF and REIT holdings symbolizes a significant shift away from the era of Abenomics [5]. - This action may signal a potential interest rate hike in October [5].