下游消费旺季预期仍存 预计不锈钢维持震荡

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight weekly decline, while inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential changes in supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Market Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the main stainless steel futures contract closed at 12,860 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of -0.43% [1]. - The trading range for the week was between 12,830 yuan/ton and 13,140 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest by 4,899 contracts compared to the previous week [1]. Inventory and Supply Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in stainless steel warehouse receipts to 90,146 tons, down by 5,119 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - The total inventory in the Wuxi and Foshan stainless steel markets fell to 902,600 tons, reflecting a 1.75% week-on-week decline, indicating a slight destocking trend [3]. Industry Insights - The Jiangsu Steel Industry Association emphasized the need to address "involution" competition and suggested that companies should collaborate to maintain market order and expand overseas business [2]. - Glencore is set to meet with the South African government to discuss measures to prevent job cuts in key stainless steel raw material smelting plants due to rising electricity prices [2]. Analyst Recommendations - Zhonghui Futures suggests that the stainless steel market is entering a traditional consumption peak season, with expectations of improved downstream consumption [3]. - The recommendation is to adopt a short-term bearish strategy while monitoring improvements in terminal consumption [3]. - Wukuang Futures notes that market confidence is being significantly suppressed by ongoing pressure in the futures market, with limited immediate impact from recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3].