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中信建投:美联储降息背景下黄金ETF资金流向如何?
智通财经网·2025-09-22 00:16

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant increase in gold ETF investments driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, emphasizing the long-term value of gold as an investment asset [1][10]. Group 1: Gold Price and ETF Performance - Shanghai gold reached a new high of 838.42 yuan per gram, with domestic gold ETF total assets reaching 155.67 billion yuan, a 120% increase from the end of last year [1][2]. - The performance of gold ETFs is closely linked to gold price movements, with COMEX gold prices rising over 10% in the past month, reaching 3,719.4 USD per ounce [2][3]. - Several gold ETFs, including the Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF and Huaxia CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF, saw net asset value increases exceeding 15% in the last month [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Weak U.S. economic data and expectations of interest rate cuts have made gold more attractive, with investors seeking to hedge against currency depreciation [3][4]. - The trend of de-dollarization and increased gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, has provided strong support for gold prices [4][7]. - Strong performance in gold mining stocks, driven by rising gold prices and increased production, has attracted more capital into the gold market [4][5]. Group 3: Fund Flows in Gold ETFs - Since September, gold ETFs have seen a reversal from the net outflows experienced in August, with a total inflow of 4.774 billion yuan as of September 19 [5][6]. - The Yongying CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock ETF had the largest net subscription, totaling 2.548 billion shares, followed by Huaxia and Huazhong ETFs [5][6]. - The overall fund flow in gold ETFs has been complex, influenced by market conditions, economic data, and policy expectations, with significant inflows observed earlier in the year [5][6]. Group 4: Global Gold ETF Holdings - Since 2025, the holdings of six major global gold ETFs have increased by 203.28 tons, with significant contributions from SPDR and iShares [7][10]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings reflects investor confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [7][10].