欧洲央行降息周期已结束?管委分歧显现 12月经济预测成关键依据

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank (ECB) officials are anxiously awaiting new economic forecasts in December to assess if current interest rates are sustainable for achieving a 2% inflation target [1] Group 1: Current Economic Situation - ECB officials believe the current deposit facility rate of 2% is suitable for achieving the inflation target, but there is disagreement on assessing economic risks and tolerance for short-term inflation below the target [1] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the bank has achieved its price stability goal, but uncertainties remain despite a trade agreement with the U.S. [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates in September, indicating that monetary policy is in a "good state," which led to reduced expectations for further rate cuts [1] Group 2: Perspectives from Central Bank Leaders - Latvian central bank governor Martins Kazaks emphasized that it is inappropriate to adjust rates every time inflation deviates from the target, suggesting a high threshold for rate changes in October and December [2] - Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras noted that the current balance is acceptable, with no immediate need for rate adjustments, but acknowledged that significant changes in the economic outlook could prompt a reassessment [2] - Maltese central bank governor Edward Scicluna stated that the current interest rate level is appropriate, with no discussions on rate cuts, while monitoring trade tensions and the euro exchange rate [3] Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - Lithuanian central bank governor Gediminas Simkus expressed a preference for rate cuts to support inflation targets, predicting that mid-term inflation will likely remain below the target [3] - Estonian central bank governor Madis Muller indicated that current rates support growth and inflation is at desired levels, suggesting no need for further action [4] - Portuguese central bank governor Mario Centeno mentioned that while a few quarters of inflation below the target can be tolerated, prolonged low inflation could lead to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations [4]