财通基金沈犁：在景气与价值中找寻平衡

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment strategy of Shen Li, a fund manager at Caitong Fund, who has achieved consistent positive returns in the volatile A-share market since taking over the Caitong New Vision Mixed Fund in January 2021, with a year-to-date return exceeding 66% as of September 18, 2023 [1] Investment Strategy - Shen Li's investment approach is characterized by a "dual avoidance" strategy, which avoids excessive pursuit of short-term economic cycles and mechanical reliance on static low valuations [3] - The strategy involves a two-layer screening mechanism: a top-down approach that requires industry prosperity to remain stable and a bottom-up focus on key factors such as profitability certainty and risk-reward ratio [4] Market Outlook - Shen Li believes the market is currently in a phase of repair and deepening, with sentiment indicators returning to normal levels and moving towards optimism without reaching overheating [5] - He identifies several key sectors for future investment, including AI, semiconductors, and high-quality manufacturing companies that have undergone value reassessment [5][6] Sector Analysis - AI is expected to attract significant capital inflows in the coming years, with hardware being the main axis of the industry cycle, drawing parallels to the strong internal momentum seen in the liquor industry in 2018 [5] - The semiconductor industry is entering a second upward cycle, characterized by improved development quality compared to the previous cycle from 2019 to 2021 [5] - High-quality manufacturing companies that have established new barriers in global capacity layout are favored, as they are expected to open up new growth curves [6] - In the consumer sector, price competitiveness is becoming a crucial criterion for selecting companies, with a focus on high-value products that meet certain consumer demands [7]