宏观降息托底价格，关注短期地缘扰动

Group 1: Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September indicates a potential for two more rate cuts within the year, which may support price stabilization in the oil market [1][2] - Geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Russia, the situation in Venezuela, and the Israel-Iran conflict, remain key concerns for the market, although geopolitical premiums may trend weaker [2][3] - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist in the medium term, with a decrease in electricity demand in the Middle East in September potentially leading to increased exports from the region [1][2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - As of September 18, WTI spot prices were at $63.57, up by $1.2, while Brent spot prices were at $67.8, up by $1.39 [2] - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 9.285 million barrels for the week ending September 12, with a notable drop in gasoline inventories as well [2] - U.S. crude oil production stands at 13.482 million barrels per day, with a reduction in net imports by 88.2% [2] Group 3: Refining and Petrochemical Sector - Short-term demand for refined products during the peak season may be lower than expected, but a decrease in refinery operations could tighten supply [3] - The average refining margin for major domestic refineries increased to 922.68 yuan/ton, up by 55.63 yuan/ton, while margins for Shandong refineries decreased to 204.74 yuan/ton, down by 73.48 yuan/ton [3] - Polyester sector shows weak demand with a decline in profitability for various types of polyester yarn, indicating pressure on pricing [3][4] Group 4: Olefins Market - The domestic ethylene market price averaged 7085 yuan/ton, down by 145 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.01% decrease [4] - The propylene market in Shandong saw a decrease in average transaction prices to 6625 yuan/ton, down by 75 yuan/ton, indicating limited short-term support for demand [5]