机构：钢铁需求有望逐步企稳

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry aims for an average annual value-added growth target of around 4% for the years 2025-2026, focusing on "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition" to guide structural adjustments and high-quality development [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Outlook - Steel demand is expected to gradually stabilize, with a decrease in the proportion of steel demand from the real estate sector due to ongoing declines in the property market, while infrastructure is anticipated to continue providing support [1] - Manufacturing demand is projected to grow steadily, leading to an overall expectation of stabilizing domestic steel demand [1] - On the supply side, some steel companies are experiencing continuous cash flow losses, indicating vulnerability, with two waves of proactive production cuts expected in 2024 and further reductions possible in 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Structure and Policy Impact - The steel industry is characterized by severe overcapacity, particularly in rebar and wire rod, with capacity utilization rates dropping from around 70% to approximately 50% from 2021 to 2025 [2] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is significantly higher than that of private enterprises, which may facilitate the implementation of administrative measures to address overcapacity [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to constrain production by about 5% to 10%, potentially leading to a recovery in steel prices and improved profitability [2]