航运业实现净零排放目标面临风险

Core Insights - The global shipping industry is experiencing a surge in demand for green fuels to meet the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 2050 net-zero emissions target, but the supply capacity and scalability of biofuels and other green fuels are severely lacking, leading to a widening supply-demand gap that poses challenges to achieving net-zero emissions [1][2] - The CEO of the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) emphasized that the ability of the shipping industry to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 remains uncertain, highlighting the critical role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and biofuels in this process [1] - A report titled "Vision and Reality" released by ABS indicates that the core issue with biofuel application is not technological but rather the limited and controversial supply of sustainable raw materials [1] Industry Challenges - The shipping industry's decarbonization faces a significant issue of "misalignment between targets and supply," where decarbonization goals are increasing while the production of green fuels is growing slowly [2] - Key signals affecting investment decisions, such as regulatory policies, fuel pricing, penalty mechanisms, supply stability, and scalability potential, are progressing at inconsistent paces, further constraining the development of the green fuel industry [2] Cost Analysis - From a cost perspective, biofuels are currently the cheapest option among all green fuels, with a price premium of approximately 1.5 to 3 times compared to very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) [2] - Green methanol has a price premium of 2 to 4 times, while green ammonia and green hydrogen have even higher premiums ranging from 3 to 8 times [2]