9月LPR继续按兵不动 分析师：四季度可能实施新一轮降息降准

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively, reflecting market expectations and stable policy rates [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has not changed for four months since its reduction in May, indicating a stable pricing basis due to unchanged policy rates [1]. - The stability in LPR is attributed to various factors including extreme weather, growth stabilization policies, external fluctuations, and adjustments in the real estate market, which have led to a decline in macroeconomic data such as consumption and investment [1]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that the high tariff policies from the U.S. may further impact global trade and China's exports in the fourth quarter, increasing the necessity for policies aimed at stabilizing growth and employment [2]. - There is potential for a downward adjustment in policy rates and LPR quotes by the end of the year, particularly as measures to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market are implemented [2]. - The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate may reduce external constraints on China's monetary policy, suggesting that a new round of rate cuts could occur in the fourth quarter, which would lower loan rates and stimulate financing demand [2].