创金合信基金魏凤春：AI的尽头是能源

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in risk premiums, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the adjustments in the A-share market amidst external shocks and domestic economic data indicating weakening internal momentum [1] Market Review - The coal sector has shown significant performance, attributed to both the effects of anti-involution and changes in global resource pricing logic due to geopolitical tensions [2] - The A-share market has seen a divergence in sentiment, with expectations of a shift from stocks to bonds, driven by the accelerated reduction of the national balance sheet and restored risk appetite [1][2] Macroeconomic Data - Consumer retail sales in August grew by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating ongoing adjustments in the consumption market, while real estate sales remain low, contributing to weak domestic demand [5] - Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China decreased by 12.7% from January to August, although high-tech sectors continue to attract significant interest, with notable increases in investment in e-commerce and aerospace [6] - Fiscal revenue for the first eight months of 2025 grew by 0.3%, with central government revenue declining by 1.7%, highlighting the need for fiscal expansion to support economic recovery [7] AI+ Investment Trends - The transition from theme-based investment in AI to a dominant industry investment is anticipated, with ongoing adjustments in the technology sector [8] - The investment logic post-adjustment for technology stocks emphasizes prioritizing global supply chains and innovative business models [8] Technical Indicators - Various sentiment indicators such as RSI, MACD, and KDJ show mixed signals, indicating market volatility and uncertainty regarding the end of the current adjustment phase [9][10][11] - The overall conclusion suggests that while there are signs of recovery in the A-share market, a clear upward trend has not yet been established [12] Energy Sector Insights - The article posits that the future of technology is closely tied to energy resources, emphasizing the importance of sustainable energy development to support high-tech advancements [14][15] - The shift in investor focus towards energy, particularly coal, is seen as a response to changing geopolitical dynamics and the need for tangible assets in a shifting market landscape [15][16]