杰罗姆·鲍威尔：就业与通胀的风险平衡需要美联储调整政策立场

Group 1: Current Economic Situation - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid significant macro policy changes, with the labor market nearing full employment and inflation rates having significantly decreased from post-pandemic peaks [1] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is being challenged by rising inflation and employment risks, with the federal funds rate maintained between 5.25% and 5.5% for over a year [2][3] - The GDP growth rate has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, reflecting a decrease in consumer spending and potential long-term impacts on economic growth and productivity due to changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies [3][4] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Recent employment reports indicate a slowdown in job growth, with an average of 35,000 non-farm jobs added monthly over the past three months, significantly lower than the 168,000 jobs added in 2024 [3] - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.2%, but remains stable, indicating a balance in the labor market despite a decrease in labor supply due to immigration policy changes [3][4] - The labor market appears to be in a precarious balance, with both supply and demand declining, raising concerns about potential job losses and increased unemployment if downward risks materialize [3] Group 3: Inflation and Price Pressures - Tariff policy adjustments have led to price increases for certain goods, with overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rising by 2.6% and core PCE by 2.9% over the past year [4] - The impact of tariff adjustments on prices is expected to accumulate in the coming months, raising concerns about the potential for sustained inflation [4][5] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about the possibility of a wage-price spiral, although current labor market conditions do not suggest immediate risks of significant wage increases [4][5] Group 4: Monetary Policy Framework - The revised monetary policy framework aims to adapt to complex economic environments while maintaining the dual mandate of achieving full employment and price stability [7][11] - The Federal Reserve has shifted from an "average inflation targeting" approach back to a "flexible inflation targeting" strategy, emphasizing the importance of stable inflation expectations [12][15] - The revised framework reflects lessons learned from recent economic conditions, including the need for proactive measures when employment and inflation targets conflict [13][14]