美债高利率和美元信用再定价：剖析与展望

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index has become a focal point in financial markets, with long-term Treasury yields rising above 4.5% since April, while the dollar index has weakened to a two-year low. This phenomenon is influenced by complex economic, policy, and market factors [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Pricing Logic and Debt Sustainability - The significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily influenced by concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt amid ongoing debt ceiling negotiations. The total federal government debt surpassed $37 trillion as of August 11, 2025, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 126.8% [4][5]. - The 2017 tax reform, which significantly reduced corporate tax rates, has led to decreased fiscal revenue while government spending has not been adequately reduced, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [5]. - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increasing debt and interest payments, which has heightened market concerns and contributed to rising Treasury yields [6]. Group 2: Global Liquidity and Capital Flows - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects a reallocation of funds between dollar assets and non-dollar assets, with the dollar depreciating by up to 6.77% since the announcement of tariffs [7][10]. - Investor confidence in dollar assets has been shaken by the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade and fiscal policies, leading to a shift towards non-dollar assets [10]. - The performance of major currencies has diverged, with the dollar weakening while currencies like the Swiss franc, euro, and yen have appreciated [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook for U.S. Treasury Yields and Dollar Index - Short-term forecasts suggest that long-term Treasury yields may oscillate between 4% and 4.5%, while the dollar index could maintain support around 98. The final version of the "budget reconciliation bill" will significantly impact both Treasury yields and the dollar index [29]. - In the medium to long term, the trajectory of Treasury yields will be influenced by the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, economic fundamentals, and Federal Reserve statements. Rising risk premiums may favor gold over dollar assets [30][31]. - Long-term debt risks may undermine the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, with potential challenges from emerging economies and alternative currencies like the euro and yuan [33].