Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold market experienced high-level consolidation, with gold prices reaching a historical high of over $3700 per ounce, driven by interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, but subsequently retreated due to mixed signals from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% and indicated a potential for further easing, but Chairman Powell's comments tempered market optimism by emphasizing a cautious approach to future rate adjustments [2][3]. - The dot plot revealed that among 19 officials, 9 expect two more rate cuts this year, while 6 do not anticipate further cuts, indicating a divided outlook on monetary policy [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the Fed's actions, the dollar index rebounded, leading to a significant drop in gold prices, which fell by over $40 to a low of $3628 per ounce [3]. - The market remains optimistic about future gold price increases, with a 91% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and nearly 80% for December [4]. Group 3: Gold Demand and Investment Trends - Gold prices have risen nearly 40% since the beginning of the year, driven by concerns over unsustainable U.S. debt, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical risks, making gold a core asset for investors [4]. - Gold ETF holdings have increased by 43% year-to-date, reaching a historical high in value, reflecting strong investor interest [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The short-term resistance for gold prices is identified in the $3700-$3730 per ounce range, with potential upward targets of $3780-$3800 and a mid-term goal of $4000 per ounce [7]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures have broken through the 830-840 yuan per gram resistance level, with key resistance seen at 887-897 yuan per gram [8].
黄金时间·一周金市回顾：短期金价震荡加剧 长期涨势延续
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-09-22 03:50