美联储开启降息周期 点阵图预期更趋鸽派

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision marks the official restart of the rate-cutting cycle, with an additional rate cut expected in 2024, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary easing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's current position is described as the most dovish stance possible, acknowledging weaker-than-expected employment market performance [1] - The market's reaction to the Fed's decision has been relatively muted, as the policy stance did not exceed market expectations [1] Group 2: Future Rate Cuts - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December [1] - A single 50 basis point cut may not necessarily benefit the credit environment, suggesting a more gradual policy approach could be more favorable for market stability [1] Group 3: Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is currently supported in the range of 97.70 to 97.90, with resistance at 98.30 to 98.50 [1] - A breakout above this range could lead to a rise towards the 99 level, while a drop below 97.50 may result in a further decline towards 97.00 [1] - The RSI indicator shows weak momentum, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1]