LPR连续第四个月“按兵不动” 专家称年内下行空间仍存

Core Viewpoint - The September Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, marking the fourth consecutive month of stability after a 10 basis point decline in May [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Expectations and Influences - The stability of the LPR aligns with market expectations, influenced by the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which serves as a policy interest rate [3][4]. - Recent increases in key mid-to-long-term market interest rates, such as the 1-year interbank certificate of deposit yield and the 10-year government bond yield, have limited banks' motivation to lower the LPR [3][4]. - Factors such as extreme weather, growth stabilization policies, external fluctuations, and adjustments in the real estate market have contributed to volatility in macroeconomic data, but ongoing fiscal policy support and positive export growth suggest a stable LPR [4][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is adjusting liquidity management tools, transitioning the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, indicating a move towards market-driven interest rates [6]. - Experts suggest that future monetary policy should focus on optimizing the structure of credit rather than merely increasing the total volume, given the high leverage and pressure on bank asset quality [6][7]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts and LPR adjustments exists, particularly in response to external pressures and the need to stimulate domestic demand [7][8]. - The recent Federal Reserve rate cut may reduce constraints on China's monetary policy, allowing for more flexibility in implementing measures to support economic growth [7][8].