“冷门”变“热闹”：化工板块正迎来高光时刻

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry in China is experiencing a strong resurgence, driven by external factors such as interest rate cuts and internal policies aimed at optimizing supply structures, leading to improved profitability and investment attractiveness [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 17, 2025, the basic chemical sector has seen a 52.37% increase over the past year, ranking 13th among 31 industries, and a 24.83% increase year-to-date, surpassing the 15.66% increase of the CSI 300 index [1]. - The current price-to-book ratio of the chemical industry is approximately 2.28, which is at a low point historically, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance the supply structure of the chemical industry by promoting high-end and green development, thereby improving overall profitability and market order [3]. - Measures such as capacity clearance and energy consumption restrictions are being implemented to phase out outdated capacities, concentrating resources on technologically advanced and efficiently managed enterprises [3]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - China's chemical industry has developed significant competitive advantages, including cost efficiency and technological advancements, positioning it to fill gaps in the international supply chain [4]. - The industry is expected to transition from a "cash-consuming" model to a "cash-generating" model as structural improvements on the supply side enhance industry profitability [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector is characterized by a highly fragmented structure with diverse sub-industries, providing ample opportunities for investment across different economic cycles [5]. - Growth stocks in the chemical industry, particularly in fine chemicals and new materials, are anticipated to have substantial potential due to high import substitution opportunities and strong downstream demand [6]. Group 5: Fund Management Strategy - Active management funds focusing on the chemical sector are gaining attention, as traditional passive funds struggle to capture the sector's inherent rhythms and structural opportunities [7]. - The "Noah Lixin Mixed Fund" has significantly increased its allocation to the basic chemical sector, reflecting a strategy to capitalize on economic improvements and cyclical growth opportunities [8].