贸易商存粮意愿不强 玉米维持宽幅区间交易思路

Market Overview - As of September 19, Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease of 240 contracts in corn futures to 30,658 contracts compared to the previous trading day [1] - The USDA crop report indicated that as of September 14, corn harvest completion was at 7%, up from 4% the previous week, but below market expectations of 9% [1] - The corn good-to-excellent rating stands at 67%, slightly down from 68% the previous week, but higher than last year's 65%, marking the highest level for this time of year since 2018 [1] - Forecasts suggest that 100% of major corn-producing states will experience above-normal temperatures in the next 6-10 days, with 61% expecting below-normal precipitation [1] Institutional Insights - Short-term outlook indicates signs of stabilization in the spot market during the transition period, with no recent announcements for imported corn auctions [2] - The new season corn planting cost support range is identified between 2,050-2,150 RMB/ton, while the upper pressure is monitored against the wheat-corn price spread [2] - Mid-term trading strategies will focus on new season corn dynamics, including opening prices, farmer selling sentiment, and downstream storage efforts, maintaining a wide range trading approach [2] - Long-term pricing logic remains centered on import substitution and planting costs, with a focus on policy direction [2] Regional Market Conditions - Northeast new season corn is being marketed smoothly with good quality, while old crop inventories are low and new season prices are stable [3] - In North China, new corn prices continue to decline, but the rate of decline is slowing, while old corn supply remains tight and prices are firm [3] - The market in consumption areas shows stability, with feed manufacturers' inventories at low levels, providing some support for prices due to minimal demand for replenishment [3] - Traders currently show weak intentions to hold inventory, with expectations of price declines during the concentrated marketing period from mid-October to November [3] - On the futures side, the main contracts are trading at a significant discount to spot prices, with seasonal bearish expectations fully priced in, indicating strong support [3]