中国LPR连续四个月未变 专家称年内仍有降息空间

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in China has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [1][2] Group 1 - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates, specifically the central bank's seven-day reverse repurchase rate, which has not changed in September [1] - Recent increases in medium to long-term market interest rates, such as the AAA-rated one-year interbank certificates of deposit and the ten-year government bond yields, have reduced the motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes [1] - The current net interest margin for commercial banks is at a historical low, further contributing to the lack of incentive to adjust LPR downwards [1] Group 2 - There is potential for a reduction in policy interest rates and LPR quotes before the end of the year, particularly as measures to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market are implemented [2] - The expectation of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in the fourth quarter could lead to a significant decrease in loan rates for businesses and residents [2] - This monetary easing is seen as a crucial strategy to stimulate consumption and investment, effectively countering the slowdown in external demand [2]