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从“小众”到“大涨”,化工板块如何崛起?
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-09-22 06:32

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a strong resurgence in the A-share market, driven by external factors such as interest rate cuts and internal factors like supply-side reforms and structural improvements in the industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 17, 2025, the basic chemical sector has seen a 52.37% increase over the past year, ranking 13th among 31 industries, and a 24.83% increase year-to-date, surpassing the 15.66% increase of the CSI 300 index [1]. - The current price-to-book ratio of the chemical industry is approximately 2.28 times, indicating a low valuation at the 37.38 percentile over the past decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [2]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to optimize the supply structure of the chemical industry by curbing excessive competition and guiding companies towards high-end and green development, thereby enhancing overall profitability [2]. - Measures such as capacity clearance and energy consumption restrictions are being implemented to phase out outdated capacities, concentrating resources on technologically advanced and efficiently managed enterprises [2]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - China's chemical industry has developed significant competitive advantages, filling gaps in the international supply chain and potentially reshaping the global chemical industry landscape [3]. - The industry is characterized by a highly fragmented structure with numerous sub-industries, providing diverse investment opportunities across different economic cycles [5]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - Growth stocks within the chemical sector, particularly in fine chemicals and new materials, are expected to have substantial room for domestic substitution, with electronic chemicals highlighted as crucial for addressing domestic semiconductor challenges [6]. - The demand for key materials in the military and new energy sectors is also projected to grow rapidly, further driving the industry's expansion [6]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Despite the investment opportunities in the chemical sector, public funds have historically maintained a low allocation to this sector, indicating a potential for active management strategies to capture structural opportunities [7]. - The "Noan Lixin Mixed Fund" has focused 59.22% of its core positions on the chemical industry, reflecting a strategy to leverage economic improvements and cyclical growth opportunities [8].