成本低位下行空间受限 硅铁低位区间支撑渐强

Core Viewpoint - The silicon iron futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.81% to 5602.00 yuan/ton as of September 22 [1] Market Data - As of September 19, the number of silicon iron futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 18,827, a decrease of 129 from the previous trading day [2] - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises nationwide was 34.84%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, with an average daily output of 16,150 tons [3] - Current profits for spot silicon iron are -200 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia and -250 yuan/ton in Ningxia. The recent bidding price for Hebei Steel's 75B silicon iron is 5,800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the last round [3] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures notes that supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, with slight inventory reduction, but warehouse receipts have stopped declining and are increasing, keeping absolute values high and suppressing price increases. Short-term price movements are expected to follow coal prices [4] - Southwest Futures indicates that recent ferroalloy production remains high, with weak demand recovery, suggesting a continuation of supply surplus. The current low cost limits downward space, while low inventory of manganese ore strengthens support at low levels. There may be short-term supply reduction expectations, and under low cost conditions, there could be opportunities to consider low-position long trades if the market falls back into a loss zone [4]