法国信用评级再遭下调

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent downgrades of France's credit rating by international rating agencies, reflecting political and economic uncertainties in the country [1][2] - On September 19, Morningstar DBRS downgraded France's long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings from "AA (high)" to "AA" due to challenges in fiscal consolidation and increasing political fragmentation [1] - Fitch Ratings had previously downgraded France's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings from "AA-" to "A+" on September 12, citing the weakening ability of the political system to implement large-scale fiscal adjustments [1] Group 2 - The recent political turmoil in France, including the resignation of former Prime Minister Borne and the subsequent appointment of Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, has left the fiscal budget plan for 2026 in limbo [2] - France is projected to record the largest fiscal deficit in the Eurozone in 2024, with significant adjustments needed to meet the 2026 budget deficit target of 4.6% of GDP as outlined in the Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plan (MTFSP) [2] - The public debt-to-GDP ratio in France rose from 98.2% in 2019 to 114.9% in 2020 due to various shocks, and despite some recovery, it only decreased to 109.8% by 2023 [2] Group 3 - Morningstar DBRS indicated that if the French government fails to address structural fiscal imbalances, a further downgrade of the credit rating may occur [3] - A sustained increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio to 125%, especially with a significant rise in interest burdens, could also lead to a downgrade [3] - Conversely, if the government can structurally improve fiscal conditions and reduce the debt ratio, there is potential for an upgrade in the credit rating [3]