本轮成品油零售限价搁浅概率较大

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil price adjustment is likely to be suspended due to the current low level of the reference crude oil price change rate, despite international crude oil prices showing a strong fluctuation trend [1][2]. Group 1: International Crude Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from September 9, 2025, to September 23, 2025), international crude oil prices have shown a strong fluctuation, leading to a change in the domestic reference crude oil price change rate from negative to positive, but still at a low level [1]. - The average price level of international crude oil has slightly increased, influenced by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, despite expectations of oversupply due to OPEC+ decisions to increase production and rising U.S. oil inventories [1][2]. Group 2: Domestic Refined Oil Price Adjustment - As of September 19, 2025, the domestic reference crude oil change rate is at 0.59%, which translates to an expected increase of 25 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, but this does not reach the retail price adjustment threshold of 50 yuan per ton [1]. - The probability of a price adjustment being suspended is high, marking the sixth suspension of refined oil price adjustments since the beginning of 2025 [2].