中国市场“回不去” 美国豆农陷困境

Core Insights - U.S. soybean farmers are facing significant financial losses due to Trump's tariff policies, which have resulted in a lack of orders from China, a major customer [1] - The American Soybean Association reported that the overall tariff rate on U.S. soybeans by China reached 34% in August, severely impacting market competitiveness [1] - There is increasing pressure within the U.S. agricultural sector to reach a trade agreement with China to secure crop sales, as the absence of orders during the harvest season is a major blow to farmers [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean farmers typically secure about 14% of their expected import volume from China before the harvest season, but this year has seen a significant absence of orders [1] - Since the 2021-22 marketing year, one-quarter of U.S. soybean production has been exported to China, with this figure peaking at 31% after the Phase One trade agreement [1] - Many U.S. farmers believe that the Chinese market is irreplaceable in the short term, and failure to reach a trade agreement could jeopardize their livelihoods for years to come [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government plans to provide financial assistance to farmers if conditions do not improve, but there is no clear timeline or specific amount announced by the Secretary of Agriculture [2] - Officials have suggested that the U.S. needs a more open market and global competitiveness, claiming that U.S. soybeans are of higher quality than those from Brazil [2] - However, the second-largest buyer, the European Union, accounts for less than one-fifth of China's demand, making it insufficient to fill the gap left by China [2] - Brazil supplied 71% of China's soybean imports last year, up from 53% in 2017, indicating a shift in China's sourcing strategy [2] - A farmer from Iowa expressed skepticism about China's willingness to purchase U.S. soybeans unless a miraculous change occurs [2]