兴证全球基金谢治宇：当下权益投资中我们所关注的大类资产（附全文精编）

Core Viewpoint - The seminar "Investment for Good" focused on ESG and charitable asset management, highlighting the importance of understanding macroeconomic variables in equity investment [1][3]. Group 1: Asset Classification and Principles - Major asset classes include foreign exchange, government bonds, stocks, and commodities, with the principle that all returns are compensation for risk taken [4]. - Investment goals dictate the types and levels of risk exposure, with conservative goals favoring government bonds and aggressive goals allowing for more stocks and derivatives [4]. - The optimization of returns within specific risk-return requirements is essential, aiming to select the best-performing assets under given risk conditions [5]. Group 2: Stock Investment Insights - Two approaches were identified for how major asset classes can aid stock investment: understanding non-fundamental stock fluctuations through macro variables and analyzing investment cycles using the Merrill Lynch Clock [8][9]. - Economic cycles can be assessed through indicators like the gold-to-copper ratio, which helps define the current economic phase [8]. - The relationship between different asset classes, such as the inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, is crucial for understanding market dynamics [12]. Group 3: Current Challenges in Asset Management - The global economy is undergoing a new cycle characterized by de-globalization, leading to misaligned economic cycles across different regions [16]. - Long-term risk-return profiles are declining due to prolonged monetary easing in the U.S. and demographic shifts in China, complicating investment strategies [17]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has shifted, necessitating a greater allocation to counter-cyclical assets like gold [18]. Group 4: Asset Outlook - Short-term prospects for U.S. dollar assets appear positive due to potential economic soft landing, but long-term risks remain due to increasing debt levels [19]. - Commodity prices, particularly oil and gold, are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, with copper benefiting from demand driven by new energy technologies [20].