【央行圆桌汇】美联储如期降息 多数机构预计年内再降两次（2025年9月22日）

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with only new member Stephen Milan supporting a 50 basis point cut. The dot plot indicates that 9 out of 19 committee members expect only one more rate cut this year or none at all. Fed Chair Powell stated that the rate cut was primarily due to rising labor market risks rather than a deterioration in the economic outlook, while also raising the median forecasts for economic growth and inflation for 2026 [1] - The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, citing trade uncertainties from U.S. tariffs as severely impacting economic activity. Canada’s GDP fell by approximately 1.5% in Q2, with exports down by 27% [2] - The Bank of England decided to maintain its benchmark rate at 4% with a 7-2 vote, while also slowing the pace of quantitative tightening, planning to reduce bond holdings by £70 billion over the next year. The committee noted signs of inflation easing but still above target, with the consumer price index at 3.8% in August [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials expressed varying views on future rate adjustments, with some indicating a low likelihood of a rate cut in October but keeping options open for December based on new economic data [4][5][6][7] - The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate at 0.5% but indicated potential for earlier exit from aggressive monetary stimulus, with plans to sell ETF assets at a rate of approximately ¥330 billion (around $2 billion) annually [9] - The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, implementing asymmetric cuts to liquidity rates to support economic growth [10] Market Observations - Wall Street anticipates a faster pace of rate cuts in the U.S. than the Fed's projections, with futures markets indicating a drop in the benchmark rate to just below 3% by the end of next year [13] - Major brokerages expect the Bank of England will not cut rates further this year, with potential easing starting in February 2026, depending on economic data [14] Regional Central Bank Insights - The South African Reserve Bank noted a simultaneous rise in inflation and economic growth, adjusting its growth forecast from 0.9% to 1.2% for the year [11] - The Brazilian Central Bank maintained its benchmark rate at 15%, marking the second consecutive meeting without changes since the end of the rate hike cycle in July [11] - The Hungarian Central Bank is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 6.5%, amid high inflation pressures [15]