Indian Tech Stocks Lose $10 Billion in Market Value on H-1B Hike

Core Viewpoint - Indian tech stocks are experiencing a decline due to concerns over the new $100,000 fee for H-1B visas imposed by the US government, which may disrupt operations for major outsourcing firms like Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - TCS shares fell by as much as 3.4%, Infosys by 3.9%, and Tech Mahindra by 6.5%, marking significant declines for these companies [3]. - Most stocks later reduced their losses as analysts suggested that the fee increase applies only to new visa applications, indicating a limited impact on the sector [3]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts from JM Financial believe that large IT companies will likely increase offshoring, which would mitigate any financial impact from the new visa fees [4]. - The IT services sector has already faced challenges, with a decline of over 18% this year, contrasting with a 6.5% gain in the NSE Nifty 50 Index [5]. Group 3: Impact on Smaller Firms - Smaller IT companies may face greater challenges due to a higher dependency on H-1B visas compared to larger firms, which have been reducing their reliance on these visas [6]. - Shares of LTIMindtree and Mphasis fell by approximately 6% each, reflecting the heightened vulnerability of smaller firms [6]. Group 4: Pricing Strategies - Companies may need to adjust their pricing strategies, either by offering more expensive onshore consulting services or cheaper offshore programs where most work is conducted outside the US [7]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Analysts from Citi noted that companies like HCL Technologies and Infosys have a significant portion of their US workforce that is visa-independent, which may lessen the impact of the new fees [8]. - The full effects of the visa fee changes are expected to become apparent starting in fiscal year 2027, with potential offsets from increased outsourcing to India and reduced outflow of Indian students studying abroad [8].