克而瑞地产：房企存货总量连续四年下滑 竣工存货短期收缩

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is experiencing a continuous decline in inventory levels, with a total inventory value of 8.14 trillion yuan as of mid-2025, representing a 4.6% decrease from the end of 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of negative growth in inventory levels [1][25]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - The total inventory value has decreased from 8.53 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 to 8.14 trillion yuan in mid-2025, indicating a slight deceleration in the rate of decline compared to the 5.1% drop observed in the first half of 2024 [1]. - Among different tiers of real estate companies, the largest decline in inventory was seen in the TOP31-50 and TOP51-100 companies, with a drop of over 7%, while the TOP10 companies experienced a smaller decline of 2.3% [3]. - As of mid-2025, the inventory of completed projects reached 1.77 trillion yuan, down 3.4% from the beginning of the year, which is an improvement compared to a 2.6% increase in the same period last year [9]. Group 2: Inventory Structure - The proportion of completed inventory reached a new high of 26.9% in mid-2025, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase from the beginning of the year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [11][13]. - The inventory of ongoing projects totaled 4.61 trillion yuan, down 7.0% from the beginning of the year, maintaining a consistent negative growth trend since 2022 [5]. - The inventory turnover rate for the 50 typical real estate companies was 0.28 times per year, an increase of 0.03 times compared to the previous year, although it remains lower than the annual turnover efficiency of the previous year [25]. Group 3: Impairment and Valuation - The balance of inventory impairment provisions for 19 A-share companies was 159.8 billion yuan at the end of the first half of 2025, a decrease of 0.8% from the beginning of the year, indicating ongoing pressure for inventory impairment despite a slight decline [15]. - The inventory impairment ratio for the sample companies was 4.67% at mid-2025, up 0.25 percentage points from the beginning of the year, reflecting a higher level of impairment pressure compared to the previous year [15][26]. - Private real estate companies have the highest inventory impairment ratio at 13.12%, significantly above the average level of other tiers, indicating a growing trend of impairment among private firms [19][21]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - The real estate industry is shifting from a scale-oriented approach to prioritizing liquidity, with companies reducing investments and accelerating inventory turnover to manage liquidity pressures [23]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on core urban areas for land acquisition while managing existing inventory through strategies such as price reductions and impairment provisions to facilitate quicker sales [27]. - The overall strategy involves a concerted effort to optimize inventory structures and reduce excess stock, with a focus on maintaining cash flow and profitability in a challenging market environment [27].