宏观政策处于观察期，LPR连续四个月“按兵不动”

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in September is attributed to multiple factors, including pressure on bank interest margins and limited room for deposit rate cuts, despite favorable external conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR for both 1-year and 5-year terms remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, marking four consecutive months of stability since June [1] - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut is expected to ease the pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential and the RMB exchange rate, providing more room for China's monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 2: Bank Interest Margins - As of Q2 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks has decreased to 1.42%, down 10 basis points from the end of Q4 2024, indicating significant pressure on banks [1] - A rapid decline in LPR could further compress bank interest margins, negatively impacting the stability of the banking system and its ability to serve the real economy [1] Group 3: Deposit Rates - The current interest rate for demand deposits at major commercial banks is at a historical low of 0.05%, limiting further downward adjustments [1] - New corporate loans and personal housing loan rates are also at historical lows, leading to a consensus that the LPR's stability is expected [1] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The third quarter is characterized as an observation period for macroeconomic policies, with various factors contributing to a decline in macro data such as consumption and investment [3] - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [3] - The necessity for policies to stabilize growth and employment is expected to increase in Q4, with potential adjustments to policy rates and LPR quotes [3]