国际观察｜五人角逐、两大决定因素 谁会是日本下任首相

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming election for the president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will take place on October 4, with five candidates competing, and the winner is expected to become the next Prime Minister of Japan. The election is marked by significant party divisions and challenges due to the LDP's recent electoral setbacks [1][6]. Candidate Overview - The five candidates for the LDP presidency are: - Shinjiro Koizumi: Current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, advocates for constitutional amendments and military enhancement, and aims to address rising prices with economic measures. He has broad support among LDP members but lacks experience in cabinet positions [2][3]. - Sanae Takaichi: Former Minister for Economic Security, represents the right-wing faction, proposes active fiscal policies and increased defense spending, and seeks to expand the ruling coalition. Her extreme right stance may hinder her appeal [2][3]. - Toshimitsu Motegi: Former Foreign Minister with extensive political experience, focuses on local revitalization and forming a new ruling coalition. However, attracting younger voters may be challenging for him [3][6]. - Takahiro Kobayashi: Identifies as a "pragmatic conservative," aims to make Japan a technology powerhouse, and supports constitutional amendments and defense spending. His academic background is a plus, but he is less known [3][6]. - Yoshihide Suga: Current Chief Cabinet Secretary, follows a moderate political approach and aims to continue the policies of previous leaders while adding new elements. His liberal stance may struggle to gain support from conservative party members [3][6]. Election Dynamics - The election will be influenced by two main factors: - The influence of LDP "bigwigs" who hold significant sway over party votes, despite the dissolution of many factions due to scandals [6]. - The voting preferences of those who supported Shigeru Ishiba in the previous election, as they may back candidates who align with his policies [6]. - The election structure includes 590 total votes, with a majority needed in the first round to win. If no candidate achieves this, the top two will proceed to a second round [4][6]. Polling Insights - Recent polls indicate that Sanae Takaichi leads with 28% support overall, while Shinjiro Koizumi follows closely with 24%. However, among LDP supporters, Koizumi has a higher approval rating of 41% compared to Takaichi's 24% [5].