"Risk Off" Attitude After All-Time High Run, Data Ahead Faces Scrutiny

Market Overview - Futures are slightly lower at the start of the trading day, but there are lingering bullish tones in the market [1][5] - The market has experienced a significant run recently, indicating potential fatigue in pre-market futures [5] Earnings and Economic Data - Key earnings reports are expected this week, including Micron after the bell tomorrow and Costco on Thursday [2] - Important economic data will be released, including PMIs, durable goods, GDP revisions, jobless claims, and personal income and outlays [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - A steady flow of Federal Reserve speakers is anticipated this week, discussing recent interest rate decisions and economic outlooks [4][10] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in October is currently around 91.9%, with market expectations heavily influenced by upcoming economic data [12][14] Inflation and Labor Market - The consensus for the year-over-year PCE inflation rate is expected to tick up slightly to between 2.6% and 2.7%, while the core PCE is projected to remain flat at around 2.9% [13] - Ongoing labor market data will be crucial for future discussions on interest rates, with more job-related data expected in early October [14] Gold and Risk Sentiment - Gold prices are rising, attributed to a risk-off sentiment in the market and a weaker dollar [6][7] - The VIX is higher, indicating increased market volatility, while yields on 10-year notes have drifted lower [8][9]