刚果（金）钴出口禁令将改为出口配额制度，业内人士：供需将进入紧平衡

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will end its cobalt export ban on October 15 and implement an export quota system starting October 16, allowing over 18,000 tons of cobalt to be exported for the remainder of the year [1][2] - The DRC's cobalt production accounts for 74% of global output, and the recent export ban led to a 62% decrease in China's imports of cobalt intermediate products from June to August [1][2] - Companies like Liqin Resources, which operates in Indonesia, saw a stock price increase of 17% following the announcement, as their cobalt supply is unaffected by the DRC's export quota [1] Group 2 - The DRC's export quota for 2025 is set at 18,000 tons, with a maximum annual export of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, representing a 56% decline from 2024 production levels [2] - The demand for cobalt is expected to rise due to increased lithium battery demand, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, which may lead to a significant inventory replenishment among downstream companies [2] - The DRC's policy shift highlights the importance of Indonesian cobalt products, as Indonesia's nickel-cobalt resources may help fill the supply gap created by the DRC's export restrictions [2] Group 3 - Liqin Resources is a nickel supply chain company with a designed annual production capacity of 400,000 tons of nickel metal, including 120,000 tons of nickel-cobalt compounds from its wet processing projects in Indonesia [3] - Huayou Cobalt also has nickel-cobalt resources in Indonesia, with ongoing projects to enhance its resource reserves and production capabilities [4] - Greenme's cobalt recycling business is expected to see increased profitability during the current cobalt price upcycle, with significant production increases projected for 2024 and 2025 [5][6]