高盛研判中国大宗商品下半年价格趋势：反内卷成供给侧核心主线

Group 1: Background and Core Conclusions - The investigation covered all participants in the supply chain, focusing on "supply-side structural adjustment" and "industry supply-demand rebalancing" [2] - Goldman Sachs identified three core judgments: 1) Most commodity supply policies are in the planning stage but are positive for industry profit recovery; 2) If policy goals are achieved, the cement and steel industries will be most affected, with coal and cement potentially improving by 2026; 3) Short-term supply stability is uncertain due to supply-side "anti-involution" and new policy disturbances, while demand shows a "strong manufacturing, weak construction" pattern [2] Group 2: Supply-Side Core Line: "Anti-Involution" - The "anti-involution" policy focuses on capacity rebalancing through capacity exit, classified management, and limiting new additions to prevent long-term overcapacity issues [3] - Key industries prioritized include EV, photovoltaic, steel, cement, coal, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, with basic metals and chemicals following [3] Group 3: Key Policy Impacts - The new Mining Law effective July 2025 is a significant variable for supply, requiring "comprehensive development of associated minerals," leading to local supply disturbances [4] - Specific impacts include potential production halts in lithium and bauxite mining due to new regulations, with lithium production costs potentially increasing by 50,000 yuan per ton [4] Group 4: Commodity Supply and Demand Analysis - Steel and iron ore: Production cuts are uncertain, with local execution lacking; long-term capacity exit may reach 200 million tons, aiming to increase utilization from 71% to 83% by 2030 [5] - Coal: Operational capacity may decrease by 13 million tons by 2025 due to overcapacity and safety issues, while new capacity of 6 million tons is expected in 2026 [7] - Lithium: Cash costs for integrated lithium production have decreased to 70,000-80,000 yuan per ton, with potential further reductions [9] - Basic metals: Copper demand growth may slow to 4%-5% by 2025, while aluminum demand remains strong due to EV and electric bicycle needs [11][12] Group 5: Demand Side: Divergence with Growth Potential - Overall demand shows stable manufacturing-related demand while construction demand remains weak, with local government cash flow issues affecting new projects [14] - Key demand growth highlights include energy infrastructure projects boosting copper demand and new manufacturing trends driving aluminum demand [15]