韩美关税磋商陷僵局，李在明发声：屈从美方会重演亚洲金融危机

Core Viewpoint - The increase in U.S. tariffs has led to a significant decline in South Korea's exports, raising concerns for the trade-dependent South Korean economy. Ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and South Korea are currently at a standstill, with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol publicly questioning the U.S. demands as excessively harsh [1][3]. Export Decline - South Korea's exports have been adversely affected by U.S. tariff pressures, with a reported 10.6% year-on-year decline in total imports and exports for the first 20 days of September, compared to a 6% increase in August [2]. - Despite this, unadjusted figures show a 13.5% increase in exports and a 9.9% increase in imports for the same period, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.89 billion. Semiconductor exports remained strong, growing by 27%, while automotive exports increased by approximately 15% [2]. - The imposition of a 15% tariff on South Korean goods has created greater challenges for exporters, particularly as there are warnings that semiconductors may be included in future tariff lists [2]. Negotiation Stalemate - A preliminary agreement was reached in July, where South Korea committed to establishing a $350 billion investment fund in exchange for a reduction in U.S. tariffs from 25% to 15%. However, negotiations have stalled due to disagreements over the investment structure and the need for a currency swap agreement [4]. - U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized that South Korea must accept the terms or face higher tariffs, citing Japan's acceptance of similar terms as a precedent [4]. Domestic Concerns - President Yoon expressed concerns that accepting U.S. demands without adequate safeguards could lead to a repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, highlighting the disparity in foreign exchange reserves between South Korea and Japan [4]. - The South Korean government is monitoring export trends and seeking multilateral cooperation to mitigate the impact of tariffs, but there are fears that an expansion of tariffs could undermine the recovery of South Korean exports [3]. Labor Issues - Recent enforcement actions in Georgia against a South Korean battery plant, resulting in the detention of over 300 workers, have heightened diplomatic tensions and added uncertainty to trade negotiations. President Yoon expressed anger over the treatment of workers but maintained that this incident would not damage the bilateral alliance [6].