Should You Hold or Sell BlackBerry Stock Before Q2 Earnings Release?

Core Insights - BlackBerry Limited (BB) is scheduled to report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on September 25, with a consensus estimate for earnings at 1 cent and revenues expected to be between $115 million and $125 million, reflecting a 13.8% year-over-year decline [1][9]. Financial Performance - BlackBerry has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average beat of 116.67% [2]. - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4]. Revenue Drivers - The QNX segment is anticipated to drive performance, particularly due to demand in advanced driver assistance systems and digital cockpit markets [5]. - BlackBerry is expanding into general embedded markets (GEM), with GEM now constituting 43% of the total SDP 8.0 pipeline, which grew by 55% in the last quarter [6][7]. - QNX revenue is projected to be between $55 million and $60 million, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $10 million and $13 million [10]. Secure Communications Division - The Secure Communications division is likely to benefit from strong uptake of Secusmart and AtHoc solutions, bolstered by key government contracts [11]. - Secusmart has performed well due to large deals with the German government, and the global pipeline is expanding, particularly in defense [12]. - BlackBerry has raised its full-year revenue guidance by $4 million to a range of $234 million to $244 million, with second-quarter revenue expectations of $54 million to $59 million [13]. Market Position and Valuation - BlackBerry's shares have declined by 5.2% over the past six months, underperforming the Internet Software industry's growth of 25% [15]. - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 4.54X, which is lower than the Internet Software industry's multiple of 6.01X [22]. Investment Considerations - Strength in QNX and expanding traction in GEMs provide long-term growth visibility, while momentum in Secure Communications adds stability [24]. - Despite macroeconomic headwinds and rising competition in cybersecurity, the company's earnings surprise history and improving fundamentals are positive indicators [24].