

Core Viewpoint - The domestic raw milk supply and demand are imbalanced, leading to an oversupply of milk sources and a weak demand for liquid milk, while deep processing products with higher added value and longer shelf life are emerging as new growth points in the industry [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The deep processing scale of cheese, cream, and butter is expected to exceed 35 billion yuan, with domestic production capacity planned to exceed 700,000 tons [3] - The domestic consumption of cheese is primarily reconstituted cheese, with only 14% of the original cheese production being domestically sourced [3] - The demand for cream is driven by health trends, with a current demand ratio of 3.2:1 for artificial to animal cream, indicating a shift towards higher domestic production [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The B-end market for cheese, cream, and butter is projected to exceed 26 billion yuan, driven by high demand in baking, ready-to-drink tea, and Western cuisine sectors [5] - The baking sector is seeing significant growth, with new products showing a milk content rate of 57.2% and a fat content rate of 76.3% [5] - The ready-to-drink beverage market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15.8% for tea and 18.5% for coffee from 2024 to 2028, with dairy products enhancing flavor profiles [5] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Miaokelando (600882.SH), a leader in the domestic cheese industry with significant capacity and technical advantages [7] - Yili Group (600887.SH) is highlighted for its strong brand, channel, and supply chain advantages, along with effective cost control [7] - Lihai Food (300973.SZ) is noted for its deep customer base in the baking sector and competitive advantages in the domestic cream market [7]