券商三季度业绩预期乐观有望支撑估值修复

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector has experienced a notable decline of 5.5% since September 22, but analysts believe the long-term outlook remains positive due to macroeconomic recovery expectations and deepening capital market reforms, suggesting that the current adjustment may provide a strategic window for long-term investments [1][2] Industry Performance - The brokerage sector's performance has shown significant divergence, with stocks like Pacific Securities, Shouchao Securities, Guosheng Financial Holdings, and Guohai Securities rising by 7.03%, 6.74%, 2.1%, and 0.22% respectively since September, while stocks like Xiangcai Shares, Huaxin Shares, and Guotai Junan have seen declines exceeding 10% [1] - Year-to-date, several brokerage stocks have performed exceptionally well, with Xiangcai Shares and Guosheng Financial Holdings both rising over 50%, and Changcheng Securities, Bank of China Securities, and GF Securities increasing by over 30% [1] Financial Metrics - According to the China Securities Association, 150 brokerages reported a 23.47% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 40.37% increase in net profit for the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for annual performance [1] - Analysts expect further growth in industry profitability in the third quarter, supported by active market trading and high margin financing balances [1][2] Short-term Volatility - The recent volatility in the brokerage sector is attributed to trading factors, but the fundamental outlook remains positive, with expectations of high growth in third-quarter performance due to increased market activity and improved securities brokerage business [2] - Analysts highlight that despite short-term fluctuations, the industry's improving fundamentals, attractive valuation margins, and ongoing policy benefits provide strong support for the brokerage sector [2] Investment Opportunities - Analysts recommend focusing on three dimensions for investment opportunities: leading brokerages with comprehensive financial service capabilities, firms with distinctive wealth management features benefiting from asset allocation shifts, and brokerages with advantages in international and institutional business [2]