Comerica Rises 21.8% in 3 Months: How to Approach the Stock Now?

Core Viewpoint - Comerica Incorporated (CMA) has shown strong stock performance, gaining 21.8% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 13.9% and its peers [1][9]. Factors Aiding Comerica's Performance - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are expected to support net interest income (NII) and margins for Comerica, with management anticipating a 5-7% increase in full-year 2025 NII compared to 2024 [6][7]. - Comerica's total loans reached $51.2 billion as of June 30, 2025, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 1%. Management expects average loans to increase in the third quarter of 2025 [8]. - The company maintains a solid liquidity profile, with total debt of $8.7 billion and total liquidity capacity of $40.5 billion as of June 30, 2025 [10][11]. - Comerica has a strong capital distribution plan, with a dividend yield of 4.03%, higher than the industry average of 3.28%, and an active share repurchase program [12][14]. - Operational efficiency measures have improved the efficiency ratio to 65.8% in Q2 2025 from 67.8% in the prior year, reflecting better cost control [15]. Concerns for Comerica - Non-interest expenses have been rising, with a CAGR of 5.3% over the last five years, and management expects expenses to increase in Q3 2025 due to higher compensation and benefits [19][22]. - The bank has a high concentration risk, with commercial and commercial mortgage loans accounting for 81.2% of total loans as of June 30, 2025, exposing it to macroeconomic risks [22][24]. Financial Performance Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Comerica's sales implies year-over-year growth of 3.55% for 2025 and 3.18% for 2026, with expected sales of $3.38 billion in 2025 [25][26]. - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 12.91X, above the industry average of 11.79X, indicating a premium valuation [29].